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Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a strong stance regarding Ukraine. After making threats of "significant consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin persisted blocking truce negotiations, Trump ultimately enacted substantial penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially affected Putin's capacity to fund his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his newly presented 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has clearly reverted to his pro-Putin approach.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's plan would essentially favor the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while placing the country's political freedom in peril. Although ringing proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal in reality compromise that essential autonomy. What represents a Russian ideal would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his business experience, Trump seems to consider the war as a basic territorial dispute, like handing Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the president. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not merely about occupying a damaged region of deindustrialized territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and Putin's obvious intention to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an appealing standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that Putin's growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Border Surrenders

While maintaining in status the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the proposal would force Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a lengthy period of fighting, this concession would render Ukraine's military defenses critically undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a open route to the capital if he eventually choose to restart the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would enable renewed hostilities simpler for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's proposal sets no such limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to portray Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as radicals, the plan declares: "Any Nazi doctrine and practices must be condemned and banned." As if to underscore this point, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that Putin risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the plan has the Russian Federation promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in regulation its position of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated equivalent agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of seized territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community trust Russia this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international protection assurances. Although the initiative promises a "immediate coordinated defense action" in case Russia restart its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars include unclear to troubling. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from positioning troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from replenishing his reduced troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Response

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "significant, planned, and sustained aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a armed reaction. Yet unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary defense against renewed invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the dedication of alliance members, such as the US administration, to react militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not